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How history can predict the CFP final four.

Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame and Clemson made the CFP selection committee's first four. But based on trends from the last three years of playoff participants, we may be able to fast forward to the final grouping. And only two of those teams make the cut.

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The Panthers' field goal on 4th and goal from the 2, up 3 points in the 4th quarter, stands out as the biggest 4th down error of the week, losing 5% win probability based on the decision. Being up 6 with about 3 minutes to play merely invites the Bills to go for the TD and the win, rather than a FG to tie. And failing to convert wouldn't be so bad, leaving the Bills likely inside their own 2. Ultimately, it didn't cost the Panthers, as the Bills failed to score on their final drive.

Brian Burke, ESPN Analytics

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