Betting Blog
Mitchell Lamb 65d

TAB Betting Blog: Pedicel the one to beat at Rosehill

Horse Racing

SATURDAY'S BEST

Rosehill Race 1 No.4 Pedicel (Kerrin McEvoy) - $4.40

After looking the part at the trials, I was super keen on Pedicel at her debut and she did a wonderful job when saluting at Canterbury, where not everything went right for her, as she was out of her comfort zone early on and had to be ridden to hold her position, before she reeled in the leaders with a nice turn of foot.

I've got little doubt that she's more a miler than a sprinter, so to do what she did there was the effort of a quality filly, and the daughter of Redoute's Choice now steps up to what I believe will be a more suitable seven furlong trip, and I see no reason not to stick with her here - I think she's very class this girl, in fact with further natural improvement she may well be a Flight Stakes/Thousand Guineas hope in the Spring, yes there's a long way to go before that can come to fruition, but all she's done thus far has impressed me.

The small field should ensure she doesn't face any traffic issues and I expect her to sit a couple of lengths of likely leader and favourite Ronstar and the other main danger Irish Bet, and with the pull in the weights she has off those two, I think she'll be too good late and kick off the day on a winning punting note.

AROUND THE GROUNDS

Ipswich Race 5 No.14 Unlikely Story (Matthew McGillivray) - $6

Few would have missed the run of Unlikely Story behind Winter Bride at Doomben on Cup Day, when the Tony Gollan trained three year old flashed home at big odds, in what was just his fourth career start.

The son of Star Witness actually went around in an October two year old race in Brisbane, prior to having some 18 months off, presumably due to some type of injury - but it's clear that during the time off he lost little of his promise and he looks at the very least a genuine Saturday grade galloper and potentially more than that.

Draws better here now, and I expect they look to settle a lot closer than what they did at Doomben where he drew wide, keeping in mind he did show good early speed the start prior when winning his maiden at Toowoomba, plus he's better off at this stage under handicap conditions rather than set weights.

Just needs a little luck around the tight Ippy circuit and he can win.

Ipswich Race 6 No.6 Perfect Dare (Corey Brown) - $19

One thing I love about Brisbane racing is that you still get events like this on Saturday - a Class 6 set weights event, which basically means it's for gallopers with six wins or less, and you're weighted according to how many races you've won - what it means is often you'll get a galloper that, for all intensive purposes, is clearly better than the usual Class 6 event, but due to the fact they actually haven't won a heap of races, they get in extremely well when entered into one of these.

Case in point is Perfect Dare in this - this Matthew Dunn trained five year old has won half a million dollars, is stakes placed on multiple occasions, is a 92 rater, but, has only won the five races, hence he gets into this with just the 57 ½ kilos, when he really should be giving weight to everything else.

Forget about his first up run three weeks ago where he drew poorly, worked early and couldn't get in better than three wide on speed, before dropping out from the 250 metres - just put the pen through that.

He's well and truly good enough to win this race, and when you take into account how he's absolutely thrown in at the weights, I find it hard to see how he isn't going close here.

OVER THE ODDS

Rosehill Race 9 No.12 Mapmaker (Adam Hyeronimus) - $15

He's a fairly limited galloper Mapmaker, but if he can get a race run to suit he's certainly capable in off-season Saturday grade and he might just get that here in the last at Rosehill on Saturday.

It's not a great field, but it's certainly an even looking one, and the key here for Mapmaker will be the tempo of the race, and to me, it does seem a little devoid of early speed, with perhaps the Bjorn Baker trained mare Irithea the only genuine pacey type engaged.

That may allow Mapmaker, from a nice draw, and pending him jumping away cleanly, to take a sit behind her and get a nice cushy run throughout - you have to forgive his run in the Tamworth Cup, because he was slow into stride and was squeezed out a little early on, which meant he got a lot further back than usual, and the race was essentially dominated by those on speed - prior to that he had trialled well and had put in a solid effort when third at Rosehill back in mid-April behind Dissolute, in a better race than this.

At that current quote I'll be having something on and hopefully we see him put his best foot forward.

QUADDIE SELECTIONS

Rosehill

Leg 1 - 4,6,7,8
Leg 2 - 2,5,7,9,11
Leg 3 - 5,6,7,11,14
Leg 4 - 8,12,14
($100 = 33.33%)

Ipswich

Leg 1 - 5,6,10
Leg 2 - 1,2
Leg 3 - 1,2,3,4,6,7,20,22
Leg 4 - 1,2,9
($100 = 69.44%)

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