Betting Blog
Mitchell Lamb 112d

TAB Betting Blog: Takes more Denmagic to win on Sunshine Coast

Horse Racing

SATURDAY'S BEST

Sunshine Coast Race 7 No. 3 Seaway (Glen Colless) - $2.60

He's been pretty stiff not have won his last two starts, but I'm extremely confident Chris Waller's improving three-year-old colt Seaway will make amends for that and win the Sunshine Coast Guineas.

All of this preparation the Queensland and Sunshine Coast Guineas looked to be the perfect races for the son of Ocean Park, but unfortunately last start his smart stablemate Sambro got a perfect run up on speed and was just able to hold on late. Seaway was finishing hard and it wouldn't have required much further for the result to be reversed.

This race doesn't possess the quality of that event, and although you're going to have to take a much shorter quote for Seaway here, it's completely understandable. Outside of last Saturday's winner The Bostonian, I fail to see how any of these can really test him. The Bostonian won't get away with the cheap lead he took advantage of at Doomben.

The wet track doesn't really concern me and I expect Seaway to win and go on to potentially be an Epsom/Toorak type galloper in Spring with a little more natural improvement.

AROUND THE GROUNDS

Sunshine Coast Race 9 No. 14 Denmagic (Ron Stewart) - $17

I know, two wins from 33 starts is about as poor a strike rate as you can get, and considering Denmagic had actually won two of her first six starts, it's been a long run of outs for the David Pfieffer trained mare. I'd say she could well be in the breeding barn come the Spring.

Neither of those wins was a black type race, so even though she's been placed in stakes races on multiple occasions, her value obviously goes up if she can win one prior to retirement. I'm going a little out a limb here by saying she can triumph in the Glasshouse Handicap and break that 902-day period without a victory.

She's always raced pretty well in Brisbane, and that's a trend that has continued with her last three starts, even though she's unplaced on each occasion. She was below average in a good edition of the Glenlogan two starts back, but either side of that she ran home nicely under big weights in both the Bright Shadow and the Gai Waterhouse.

She now drops down to 54 kilos for this, and even though she has to take on the males, it's an even edition of the Glasshouse. Given that a mare, who is coming out of restricted grade in Melbourne for her last two starts, is favourite with the same weight as Denmagic, I'd suggest she's not poorly in. She'll get back a little, but there's good speed and hopefully she gets every chance to run get home hard over the top of them.

Sunshine Coast Race 10 No. 9 Divine Messenger (Mark Du Plessis) - $6

I've always had an opinion of Divine Messenger, but she went off the boil a little at the end of her Spring campaign, and has taken a few runs to get near her peak this time in. Her last start effort behind Envy Of All at Ipswich on Cup Day signalled she is ready to return to the winner's circle in the right race, and this race on Saturday at the Sunshine Coast looks highly suitable.

She'll hopefully be around midfield, one off the fence, during the run here, and it looks like it will be a truly run event. She'll get her chance in the long Sunny Coast straight to run on - I expect that the daughter of Star Witness is ready to peak and put her best foot forward now.

Rosehill Race 1 No. 4 Bubbles'n'troubles (Corey Brown) - $3.60

I really like what I saw from Bubbles'n'troubles in her debut win. She showed nice early speed to take a handy position from her wide gate, Corey Brown set her alight as they began to turn for home and the daughter of Hinchinbrook found plenty of ping off the bend and comfortably held her rivals over the last 200 metres. It appeared to be a win of a filly that's bound for a decent career.

This is a step up, obviously, as she takes on some proven Saturday class juveniles and also has to rise in trip to the seven furlongs. She does get a little bit of weight relief, Brown sticks with her, and I can potentially see the Waller filly looking to dominate from the front here and prove very difficult to get past.

In time, she'll win better races, but at this stage this looks a nice stepping stone as she looks to kick off her career in perfect fashion by making it two straight.

OVER THE ODDS

Rosehill Race 7 No. 4 Gold Symphony (Adam Hyeronimus) - $26

On his day, Gold Symphony is a proven class galloper, having defeated a horse as good as Happy Clapper just 13 months ago. It has been right on a year now since his last win, which was, in fact, last year's edition of the Civic Stakes, the same race he goes around in here.

I don't think a lot has gone right for him in his six subsequent starts since that victory. He's carried big weights, often getting out of his ground in the run more than you'd like to see in races that have often been dominated by those up front.

He was unsuited first up in the June Stakes on a very wet track. It was messily run, and he was back and very wide, holding his position late in the piece.

I fancy he'll be better off here now that he gets to the 1350 metres. He's got some decent second-up form, and as long as the track isn't too heavy, he's completely fine on a soft surface. He does draw horribly again, and that's probably one of the reasons he's at such big odds. If Adam Hyeronimus can just find him some cover three wide, they don't leave Jungle Ruler alone up front to dictate, and he can get a cart into the race when he wants to start moving forward, then I wouldn't be surprised to see him run a great race.

QUADDIE SELECTIONS

Sunshine Coast

Leg 1 - 2,3

Leg 2 - 1,4,12

Leg 3 - 3,4,5,9,11,14

Leg 4 - 2,9

($100 = 138.88%)

Rosehill

Leg 1 - 2,3,4,7

Leg 2 - 1,4,5,7,10,13

Leg 3 - 4,9,13

Leg 4 - 6,7,13,14,17

($100 = 27.77%)

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