Forecast up for Brown, down for Marshall

Football Outsiders managing editor Bill Barnwell has the group's projections for the top 2010 fantasy risers and fallers.

Barnwell lists six up and six down, with the Miami Dolphins contributing one apiece.

Running back Ronnie Brown is on the rise. Fantasy owners are skittish about Brown's injury history, but Football Outsiders finds he's well worth the risk. The forecast is for 12 touchdowns this year. Barnwell also acknowledges the Dolphins' success at power running (successfully converting 79 percent of their runs on third down and 2 yards or less) as a reason to consider Brown.

Football Outsiders projects receiver Brandon Marshall won't play up to expectations, and a significant reason is quarterback Chad Henne.

Barnwell writes:

People are underestimating the contextual shift for Marshall. He's playing with the worst quarterback of his career now (although this changes if Chad Pennington ends up with the starting job at some point during the year). He's on a team that runs the ball a large percentage of the time, and he's in a division with the league's toughest group of pass defenses. There just aren't 165 targets in the hopper.