As Jenny Dell of "Countdown Daily" explains, the Bills are heavy underdogs based on AccuScore's 10,000 simulations.
The forecast gives the Bills a 45 percent chance of scoring more than 14 points, projects Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will average 3.3 yards a carry and predicts Trent Edwards will complete 53 percent of his passes for 173 yards.
If the Bills can win the turnover battle and average more than 5 yards a carry, then their likelihood of winning rises to 51 percent. Otherwise, the Packers win 75 percent of the simulations by an average of 10 points.