AccuScore gives Bills a mission: Stop MJD

Most Buffalo Bills fans who checked off the schedule before the season likely had Week 5 pegged as one of their few victories.

Alas, AccuScore doesn't like the Bills' chances to end their winless ways Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

AccuScore's 10,000 matchup simulations spit out formula that's pretty easy for Jacksonville: quarterback David Garrard needs a passer rating of at least 90, and Maurice Jones-Drew needs to rush for 75 yards and a touchdown.

If the Jaguars can do that, they'll win by double-digits.

There's only a 27 percent chance the Bills can keep Jones-Drew under 75 yards and without a touchdown. But if the Bills' weak run defense can do it, then the Bills win by an average score of 19-13.

AccuScore's final prediction has Jacksonville winning by three points.