Computers don't feel sympathy.
AccuScore's 10,000 simulations reveal the Ravens are 84 percent favorites Sunday in M&T Bank Stadium. If Ray Rice can rush for at least 100 yards against the NFL's worst run defense (allowing an average of 182.4 yards a game), then the Ravens' chances skyrocket to 95 percent.
AccuScore's formula for a Bills upset: average at least 4 yards a carry against one of the NFL's better defenses, force at least three Ravens turnovers and hold the Ravens to less than 100 yards rushing. If all that happens, then the Bills have a relatively modest 60 percent chance of victory.