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Minus run game, Miami must sack Flacco

AccuScore doesn't expect the Miami Dolphins to escape Baltimore with their road record unblemished.

The Baltimore Ravens have a 66.4 percent chance of winning Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium.

In AccuScore's 10,000 computer simulations, Miami running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams average 0.55 touchdowns against a middling Baltimore run defense. If Brown or Williams can punch one through, then Miami becomes a modest 51 percent favorite.

Baltimore certainly can hold Miami to less than 3.5 yards a carry. When that happened, Baltimore won 72 percent of the time.

The key trend derived from AccuScore's tabulations is sacking Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco. If Miami can sack him at least three times, its chances of winning shoot to 60 percent.