AccuScore gives the Buffalo Bills a 74 percent chance of beating the Detroit Lions on Sunday in Ralph Wilson Stadium.
This will be the Bills' best opportunity for a victory all year, much less over the second half of the season. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford won't play, but even if he were healthy, the Bills had a 58 percent likelihood of winning in AccuScore's 10,000 simulations.
But if the Lions can hold the Bills' running backs under 3 yards per carry, their chances rise to a modest 53 percent. Big whoop.