In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, the Dolphins won 52 percent of the time by an average of 0.8 points.
But AccuScore focuses on the run game. The Dolphins have the slight edge because Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams averaged 4 yards per carry in the simulations, while Bears running backs averaged 3 yards.
If the Bears can hold Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to under 100 yards combined, then their chances to win climb to 66 percent. If Williams and Brown top that mark, then the Dolphins' chances soar to 82 percent.