Only two teams on the Week 16 schedule are bigger favorites than the Patriots -- the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Carolina Panthers and the Philadelphia Eagles over the Minnesota Vikings -- but just barely. The Steelers and Eagles will play at home.
In AccuScore's 10,000 simulations, Patriots quarterback Tom Brady averaged 240 yards against the Bills, but he also averaged an interception 50 percent of the time. If he throws one, his record-threatening streak of consecutive passes without an interception would come to an end in Ralph Wilson Stadium. He's at 292 and counting.
AccuScore's best formula for the Bills to become a favorite?
Intercept Brady (no problem!), hold Patriots running backs BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead to under 3.5 yards a carry (no problem!) and get at least two touchdown passes and no interceptions from Ryan Fitzpatrick (no problem!) and the Bills have a 53 percent chance.