The Baltimore Ravens' chances of upsetting the top-seeded Patriots in the AFC championship game is projected at a solid 40.7 percent, according to the numberFire crew.
That means it wouldn't be a surprise if the Ravens advanced to the Super Bowl based on how the computer sees the teams. But the projection has Baltimore jumping out to a 20-10 lead only to lose to the Patriots, 27-23.
Here's the breakdown from numberFire: "Nobody in the league looks as comfortable in the pocket as (Tom) Brady, but even he can be flustered. The Ravens have the ability to generate pressure with Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata, who will look to hit Brady early and often. All that said, the Patriots have too much offense."
The Patriots are favored by 7.5 points over the Ravens, who are an underdog for only the second time this season. The other instance was Nov. 6 at Pittsburgh, where the Ravens won, 23-20.
"We like being the underdog,” Ravens linebacker Jarret Johnson said. “We’re used to it. I think we handle it better psychologically. I don’t really know why, but I think we do. Should we be? I don’t know. Obviously, it’s their place, they’re the No. 1 seed, they’ve earned it, they’re one of the top offenses in the league, they deserve to be a top team. But I like it.”