If the Bengals beat the Texans on Saturday, would it really be considered an upset? Not based on the recent history of the sixth seed in the AFC.
For the past four seasons, the sixth seed in the AFC has won three times in the wild-card round. In the 2008 season, the Ravens beat the Dolphins. In 2009, the Ravens topped the Patriots. In 2010, the Jets edged out the Colts. The only loss for the AFC's No. 6 seed during that span was the Bengals falling at Houston last season.
This is quite a turnaround for the sixth seed. From 1990 to 2007, the sixth seed went 2-16 in the AFC wild-card round. The average margin of defeat was 12.4 points.
The Bengals, though, have to overcome their own history in the playoffs. Cincinnati is 5-10 all-time in the playoffs (.333), which is the worst record in NFL postseason history.