The Scouts Inc. crew offers up three scenarios per team and draft slot in this quality read. You’ve got to be an Insider to see it all, but you are lucky because you know me and I am both an Insider and a rebel willing to share the AFC South piece of the puzzle:
Jacksonville, No. 10
Their pick: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
Scenario 1: Age and durability along the defensive front are issues even with the arrival of Aaron Kampman, and Pierre-Paul and his upside make sense here. Derrick Morgan also would have to be a consideration.
Scenario 3: This is yet another team that would like to see Spiller fall. He would give Jacksonville the kind of versatile playmaker who could help the Jags keep up with division rivals Indianapolis and Houston.
My thoughts: Pierre-Paul seems like a project to me, and I want more than a project this high when my team needs to win and draw better. Gene Smith has been willing to swallow mistakes that the team has made, so if they judge Nelson one, they won’t be hesitant to take Thomas if they feel he is their best option. Spiller is a playmaker, and they need playmakers. Maurice Jones-Drew and Spiller would be a heck of a one-two punch, but that would be an awful lot of money invested in one spot.
Tennessee, No. 16
Their pick: Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan
Scenario 1: There is a lot to choose from at the top need positions, but the Titans have had success with undersized ends in the past, and Graham certainly knows how to get to the quarterback.
Scenario 2: If cornerback is the choice, Haden becomes the best available option.
Scenario 3: The Titans could reach to fill their need at defensive tackle, but we do not believe any tackle on the board is worthy of this pick.
My thoughts: Graham has more polish that Pierre-Paul and it’s starting to seem like Graham is more likely to be available. Joe Haden could be a guy who starts in relative short order and would be good in combination with Cortland Finnegan. I think defensive tackle is being overrated as a need here. If there was a great interior pass-rusher, perhaps he’d be intriguing. But the Titans have spent second-round picks in consecutive years on the spot in Jason Jones and Sen'Derrick Marks.
Houston, No. 20
Their pick: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Scenario 1: The Texans look to a pressing need and take Haden, who is on the board in this scenario.
Scenario 3: With running back being their top need, the Texans could conceivably look at a prospect like Fresno State's Ryan Mathews, but it seems unlikely given the corners who should be available.
My thoughts: I can’t see Haden lasting this long, especially if he’s the top corner to most teams. A choice between Jackson and Wilson wouldn’t be bad. I think either would be the team’s best corner in short order. Mathews could really round out the offense, especially if there is a quality interior lineman later to block for him.
Indianapolis, No. 31
Their pick: Tyson Alualu, DT, California
Scenario 1: With no offensive tackle worth the pick on the board, the Colts opt for a defensive tackle who fits their quick, penetrating style on that side of the ball.
Scenario 3: A pass-rusher is not a pressing need, but if someone like Sergio Kindle or Brandon Graham drops, then he would be a value pick to fill what will be a need in the near future.
My thoughts: Their top scenario could happen, but I think they are a little happier with their interior defensive line than people think, especially if they like the progress of last year’s No. 2, Fili Moala. Saffold seems like a real possibility. I could definitely see them looking to a pass-rusher. With Raheem Brock gone and an injury to Dwight Freeney hurting them so much in the Super Bowl, I say it’s more pressing than these guys suggest.