If the Colts (2-13), who upset the Houston Texans on Thursday, lose their final regular-season game, they still will get the No. 1 overall pick in 2012 because of a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.
In Week 17, the Colts play at Jacksonville. The Minnesota Vikings (2-12) have games left at Washington and at home against Chicago. The St. Louis Rams (2-12) conclude their season at the Steelers and at home against the 49ers.
The current strength of schedules are: Colts (.547), Rams (.566) and Vikings (.587).
If it comes down to tiebreakers, the Colts are going to win that because their schedule is weaker than the other two teams. Indianapolis’ strength of schedule will get weaker after playing Jacksonville (current strength of schedule does not include remaining opponents).