Let’s have a look at how the quarterbacks of the AFC South are faring in passer rating and QBR, shall we?
Passer rating maxes out at 158.3; QBR goes to 100. Here’s ESPN.com's QBR file.
For a game, QBR can be interpreted as a percentile, so a score of 80 means a quarterback's performance was better than 80 percent of all quarterbacks.
A reminder on Total QBR: It’s a quarterback rating that takes into account all of a player's significant contributions (passing, rushing, sacks, fumbles, penalties) to his team’s scoring and winning and summarizes them into one number on a 0-100 scale, where 50 is average. Since 2008, the team with the higher QBR has won 86 percent of the time.
Luck has been way at the top of the QBR ratings earlier this year. They take into account his running contributions and discount some of his early interceptions -- one that was deep and amounted to a punt, another that was in garbage time when he was forcing things.
Here is what he’s done week to week in QBR:
Week 1: 39.2
Week 2: 95.7
Week 3: 82.0
Week 4: Bye
Week 5: 68.2
Week 6: 40.4
In the loss at New York, he didn’t have great protection but he missed a couple throws he should make. He threw high several times.
All in all, his growth seems right on track to me. A lot of it is about the team around him, which isn’t very good. The dramatic win over Green Bay was a great day, but it might have got some people thinking the Colts were better than they actually are.
Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill are getting very strong reviews for their rookie seasons. Here, using QBR, Ben Alamar explains why RG3 is further along in his development than Luck, with quicker decision-making playing a key role.
I’d still take Luck for the long haul.