Football Outsiders sees the Colts in the playoffs but not lasting long.
That’s not a tough conclusion to draw.
The gap between the very best teams in the AFC and the teams that are in line for the fifth and sixth slots is significant.
You need only look at the Patriots’ 59-24 win over the Colts back on Nov. 18.
Football Outsiders punches holes in the teams the Colts have beaten.
“Those seven opponents have a combined record of 31-46, and only one (Green Bay) would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today. The Colts have spent most of their season playing just a little bit better than some of the worst teams in football.”
I don’t disagree. But I will point out that if the Colts hadn’t beaten those seven opponents, they’d be 38-39. Indianapolis has a big hand in the combined record of their opponents, as any team does.
But Outsiders raises good points about the Colts’ defensive deficiencies -- they don’t get nearly enough turnovers, they allow good games to less-than-good quarterbacks.
Here’s the thing: I’m not going to downgrade the Colts for an early playoff exit. Barring a major failure the rest of the way with a schedule that should provide two or three more wins, they’re going to make the postseason.
And making the playoffs, not winning once they get there, will count as a monumental success story any other team will be hard-pressed to top.