The impact of Rivers' fumble

Philip Rivers' fumbled snap from center Nick Hardwick on Monday night was the first miscue the two ever had since Rivers become the starter in 2006. It came at a horrible time. The fumble in the final minute came with the Chargers preparing for a chip-shot field goal to beat the Chiefs. In the end, it was Kansas City that won, 23-20, in overtime.

Thanks to ESPN Stats & Information’s win probability calculations based on 10 years of historical NFL play-by-play data, it shows how much the bad snap affected the Chargers on Monday night. The Chargers had a 91.2 percent chance of winning the game before the fumble and just a 46.1 percent after the Chiefs recovered the botched snap.

Rivers’ fumble had the largest impact of any aborted snap in the NFL since 2008. Here is a list of the top five botched snaps in that time span in terms of the impact they had on win probability.

1. Oct. 31, 2011: Philip Rivers (S.D.) fumbled on first-and-10 from the K.C. 15-yard line with the score tied at 1:03 in the fourth quarter.

S.D. Win Probability Before Play: 91.2%

S.D. Win Probability After Play: 46.1%

S.D. Change in Probability Prob: -45.1%

2. Jan. 2, 2011: Kerry Collins (TEN) fumbled on second-and-7 from the Indianapolis 34-yard line with the score tied at 1:30 left in fourth quarter.

TEN Win Probability Before Play: 75.3%

TEN Win Probability After Play: 32.6%

TEN Change in Win Probability: -42.8%

3. Oct. 9, 2011: Blaine Gabbert (JAX) fumbled on third-and-1 from the Jacksonville 42, trailing by 3 with 1:19 left in the fourth quarter.

JAX Win Probability Before Play: 36.9%

JAX Win Probability After Play: 0.9%

JAX Change in Win Probability: -36.0%

4. Dec. 12, 2010: Josh Freeman (TB) aborted a snap on first-and-goal from the Washington 1-yard line, leading by 1 with 13:18 left in the fourth quarter (resulted in touchback).

TB Win Probability Before Play: 72.8%

TB Win Probability After Play: 40.0%

TB Change in Win Probability: -32.8%

5. Jan. 3, 2009: Matt Ryan (ATL) aborted a snap on second-and-7 from the Atlanta 30, leading by 3 with 14:17 left in the third quarter (returned for touchdown).

ATL Win Probability Before Play: 60.4%

ATL Win Probability After Play: 33.1%

ATL Change in Win Probability: -27.3%