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Ravens' John Urschel doesn't expect an increase in two-point plays

The NFL wants more exciting plays after touchdowns, and there is hope that the longer extra point will motivate coaches to go for two points more often.

But Baltimore Ravens offensive lineman/numbers guru John Urschel doesn't see that happening.

Urschel, a published mathematician, acknowledges the expected points (the sum of each possible point outcome times the likelihood of each occurring) of the two-point conversion is now higher than that of an extra point kick. The reason why Urschel doesn't expect an increase in two-point plays is coaches are "risk averse."

This is what Urschel wrote on theplayerstribune.com: "Coaches like low variation, and a difference of .03 expected points per extra point is not nearly enough to deter them from the safer choice of going with a slightly longer kick (which has variance of .07) as opposed to the much riskier two-point conversion (which has variance .25)."

The translation for those who speak Madden instead of math: There's still not enough incentive for that one extra point. The success rate for the new distance for extra points is 92.8 percent, and teams convert two-point plays only 47.9 percent of the time. It's not worth flipping a coin for one more point when the alternative essentially remains a sure thing.

"There may be some who embrace the new system and take advantage of this opportunity, but my guess is most won’t," Urschel wrote.

For those wondering, the Ravens rank No. 7 in two-point conversion rate since John Harbaugh became coach in 2008. Baltimore has converted 7 of 11 chances during that time (63.6 percent). Only eight teams have attempted fewer two-point plays over the last seven seasons.