Big 12 Upset Alert: Week 7

Each week, we pick the Big 12 game most likely to go the opposite way experts believe.

This week, there were plenty of good picks, but I boiled it down to one.

My pick: No. 6 Kansas State at Iowa State

Paul Rhoads has made a living knocking off great teams, and he'll have another opportunity at home this week. Iowa State's already come close against Kansas State. The last two Farmageddons were decided by just a touchdown, and the 2009 game came down to a blocked extra point late.

This time, don't be surprised if Iowa State finally gets the best of these purple Kansans. These teams are a lot like each other in some ways, but Iowa State is better built to stop offenses like Kansas State than the spread schemes around the Big 12. Kansas State wants to play physical.

Linebackers Jake Knott and A.J. Klein will be ready for Collin Klein and John Hubert, and expect this game to be close. Jared Barnett connected on a pair of bombs against a good TCU defense, and he's already got a home win against Oklahoma State on his resume, and the 2011 Cowboys were probably a bit better than this 2012 Kansas State team.

Iowa State joined Ohio State as the only teams in college football to log road wins against ranked teams in three consecutive seasons, but the Cyclones will be home this week, where they've been tough the past couple years. Iowa State is a scary matchup for K-State with the personnel to slow the Wildcats powerful offense.

If Iowa State springs the upset, it'll be because of that defense.