Each week, we pick the Big 12 game most likely to go the opposite way experts believe.
This week, there weren't a lot of great picks, but I narrowed it down to one.
My pick: Iowa State at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is somehow a two-touchdown favorite in this game, and I've got exactly no idea how. Iowa State has better wins and has looked better through the first half of the season, and heads into Stillwater with a lot of confidence.
After last year's double-overtime upset, revenge will be the buzzword in Stillwater this week, but emotion only takes you so far. Fact is, only Oklahoma has a demonstrably better defense than Iowa State, and Oklahoma State's offense managed just 20 points against Kansas last week in the rain.
The Cowboys have uncertainty at quarterback, and Iowa State has no idea which passer it will face. The Cyclones will likely trot Jared Barnett back out, the same quarterback who led the Cyclones to last year's historic upset. Additionally, home teams are just 3-10 in Big 12 play this season. Iowa State has already got a two-touchdown win on the road at TCU and beat rival Iowa on the road, too. There's no reason why the Cyclones can't earn a third road win this weekend, just a week after taking the Big 12's best and only undefeated team -- Kansas State -- to the wire.
Oklahoma State has proven nothing yet this season, and was blown out by three touchdowns against an average Arizona team before losing to a Texas team that has been exposed the past two weeks.
Iowa State's linebackers are well-suited to slow down the running game with Joseph Randle, so quarterbacks J.W. Walsh or Wes Lunt might have to beat the underrated Iowa State secondary with their arm. Will it be enough?
Maybe, but don't be surprised if the Cyclones pull a shocker yet again.