Bowl chances: USF

With five Big East teams fighting for bowl eligibility, I am taking a look at the chances of each team making it to at least six wins. Last up: USF.

Record: 5-4

Games remaining: Miami, Louisville, West Virginia

Breakdown: USF is one of the biggest disappointments in the Big East this year. Tabbed as the dark horse to win the conference before the season started, the Bulls started 0-4 in conference play before getting a much-needed win over Syracuse last week. There have been different breakdowns at different times this season, from run defense to run offense to too many penalties to special-teams mistakes. After its blowout loss at Pitt, USF dropped its next three by a combined 12 points. All of them featured blown second-half leads. USF has too much talent to sit at home during bowl season. The young defensive line has matured and has done a much better job against the run. USF is one of the best in the Big East when it comes to sacks and tackles for loss. B.J. Daniels has been more consistent this season, though he has a very young group of receivers to work with because of injuries. The offensive line has been a strong unit all season. USF gets to finish its final three games at home, so you have to like its odds of getting one more win. Miami, at 5-5, is perfectly beatable. The game will present a good matchup between Canes running back Lamar Miller and the USF defensive front. Louisville is 0-4 in Tampa, with the average score 41-20. And the home team is 4-0 in the last four years in the West Virginia series.

Chances of getting six wins: 60 percent.

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