Estimating cost of arbitration-eligibles

BOSTON -- The Red Sox go into this offseason with just more than $45 million in guaranteed salaries, after having an Opening Day payroll of around $175 million in 2012.

That commitment could grow by roughly $29 million to $30 million if the Sox retain all 11 of their arbitration-eligible players this winter, according to a formula devised by Matt Swartz of MLBtraderumors.com. Last year, Swartz came within $1 million of all but four of 156 arbitration-eligible players, so he has a track record.

Here are the salaries projected by Swatrz for Boston’s arbitration-eligible players, a class that is led by Jacoby Ellsbury, who figured to cross the $10 million threshold in his final year of arbitration eligibility if he hadn’t lost so much time to injury. Swartz is projecting just a slight bump for Ellsbury from $8.05 million to $8.1 million, which might be on the light side, especially since Ellsbury’s agent is Scott Boras.

Injury also will play a role in tamping down Andrew Bailey’s 2013 salary. Bailey was paid $3.9 million in 2012 and should expect around the same, Swartz contends, given the time he missed and his subpar performance when he returned.

The complete list:

Jacoby Ellsbury -- $8.1 million

Andrew Bailey -- $3.9 million

Jarrod Saltalamacchia -- $3.9 million

Alfredo Aceves -- $2.6 million

Craig Breslow -- $2.4 million

Ryan Sweeney -- $1.8 million

Daniel Bard -- $1.6 million

Andrew Miller -- $1.4 million

Franklin Morales -- $1.4 million

Scott Atchison -- $800,000.

Swartz did not list Junichi Tazawa, who was paid $920,000 last season and is in his first season of arbitration eligibility.

It is unlikely that all 11 players will return. Some could be traded, others may be nontendered.