CINCINNATI -- If the past 35 years are any indication, this season's Cincinnati Bengals ought to brace for a sub-.500 mark.
That's because since the 1978 season, the year the NFL went to its current 16-game regular-season scheduling format, teams that have finished with a tie on their ledgers have gone on to win an average of 7.2 games. If we approximate that average to seven, it means that under the 16-game format those teams have finished with a 7-8-1 record. Those averages also take into account the strike-shortened seasons of 1987 and 1982, when the league played only 15 and nine games, respectively.
Back to the 7-8-1 record. As you can imagine, never in league history has such a record been good enough for the playoffs, and it's hard to imagine that it would be this season, as well.
This all means that starting this week when the Bengals travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts, they must start rattling off a series of wins in order to prove the ominous tie statistic moot. Teams have, after all, finished the year with more than seven wins despite having ties. More on them below.
Cincinnati earned its third tie in franchise history last Sunday after an overtime deadlock against the Carolina Panthers 37-37. It was the second time in as many overtime games at Paul Brown Stadium that the Bengals tied. In the previous season they had an overtime game at home -- 2008 -- the Bengals finished with a 4-11-1 record that included the 13-13 tie with the Philadelphia Eagles.
In all, 34 teams have had ties since 1978.
Only 13 of those teams have made the playoffs, and two have ended up in the Super Bowl. But neither the 1987 Broncos nor the 2012 49ers would win the Lombardi Trophy.
Here's something else that doesn't bode well for the Bengals and Panthers. Only twice since 1978 have both of the teams that tied in a given season gone on to make that year's playoffs. In 2002, the Steelers and Falcons had a tie and still reached the postseason, and in 1981 the Jets and Dolphins did, as well.
Including the strike years, there have been 15 seasons since 1978 that have seen ties. The combined end-of-season records for each of those teams is 236-258-34, which works out to a .447 winning percentage. A .447 winning percentage in a 16-game schedule comes out to 7.2 wins. With a tie included, those 7.2 wins approximate to a 7-8-1 record; a record this year's Bengals would like to avoid at all costs.