The term “approximate value” refers to an analytics measurement that puts a single value on a player’s performance in a single season.
Developed by Doug Drinen, the founder of Pro Football Reference, it uses analytics and metrics to determine a player’s value. Drinen admits it is not foolproof, though he believes it is an improvement over numbers like Pro Bowl appearances and years as a starter.
Those who follow baseball know about WAR -- wins above replacement. That metric has actually guided some decisions by Major League teams. AV is football’s equivalent to WAR, though not nearly as precise. AV is a solid way to measure the impact of players and compare them across positions.
The single-season AV leaders (since 1950) are running backs LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 (1,815 yards and an AV of 26), O.J. Simpson in 1975 (1,817 yards and an AV of 25) and Marshall Faulk in 1999 (2,429 total yards and an AV of 26).
The best single-season by a Browns player was Jim Brown in 1964, when he had 1,446 yards rushing and an AV of 23.
Cornerback Aeneas Williams had the best single-season among defensive players, according to AV.
What does this have to do with the Cleveland Browns?
ESPN Stats and Information compared a player’s AV over his first four seasons — the standard rookie contract — to the expected value of a player selected in his draft slot. The stats group then determined what team drafted best since 2002, the last time the league expanded.
The factor that works against the Browns is the higher the selection, the higher the expected value. If a player does not work out in that scenario, it hurts the rating. The Browns have had a lot of high selections, many that did not work out. But, if a team finds a player in late rounds, though, it added to its rating.
Stats and Info determined that the best drafting teams since 2002 are Seattle, the Colts, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Pittsburgh.
The best in the first round: Carolina, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
The best in rounds four through seven: Green Bay, Indianapolis and Philadelphia.
Every one of those teams but Carolina is in the top 10 in wins since 2002, and the Panthers are 14th. Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Green Bay rank second, third and fourth in wins since 2002, and are among the best drafting teams.
The worst drafting teams (no surprise) include the Browns, fifth overall. The five worst are the Lions, Raiders, Rams, Bucs and Browns. The teams with the most losses in that time are (in order) Oakland, Detroit, Cleveland and St. Louis. The Bucs have the eighth highest total of losses.
ESPN Stats and Information also lists the worst draft picks since 2002 for the worst drafting teams, all based on approximate value.
The Browns bottom three, in order, are quarterback Brady Quinn, receiver Brian Robiskie and linebacker David Veikune.
The conclusion really doesn’t need a metric to support it, but the metric definitely proves the point: Teams that want to win consistently need to draft well consistently.