Pat McManamon, ESPN Staff Writer 354d

Browns leading (again) in chase for draft's first pick, per ESPN analytics

BEREA, Ohio -- And so it has come to this.

And it has become so Browns.

The analytics generated by ESPN show that after four games, the Cleveland Browns have the best chance for the NFL’s first overall draft pick.

The Browns’ chances are 40.9 percent, with San Francisco second at 29.3 percent. No other team is above 9 percent.

The Browns have a 90 percent chance of getting a pick in the top five and a 99 percent chance of being in the top 10.

Last season, the team’s that originally were slotted to pick 10 and 11 in the draft finished 7-9. So there is a 99 percent chance that the best record the Browns will finish with this season is 7-9, according to the analytics.

Cheap shot? Maybe.

But keep in in mind that the Browns’ 2-29 record in the last 31 games matches the worst in NFL history for that number of games. It’s not like they haven’t earned this stuff.

When the season started, analytics predicted the Browns would win three games. But two of those projected wins were over Cincinnati at home and Indianapolis on the road. The Browns already lost both of those games.

The only game left that they are projected to win is Sunday against the Jets.

Which means if the algorithms are correct, the Browns will repeat the 1-15 mark of last season.


How would Sunday’s results affect the draft? 
A Browns win over the Jets drops their chances for the first pick to 30 percent. A Browns loss increases the likelihood they draft first to 55 percent.

All this only four games into the season.

The one entity that can do something about this entire situation plays Sunday at FirstEnergy Stadium.

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