Tournament Challenge update

As of 5:30 p.m. ET Monday, just over 3 million brackets were already entered in ESPN's Tournament Challenge.

Florida, the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, remains the most popular pick to win it all, at 27.7 percent of brackets entered. However, what's very interesting is that the second- and third-most popular picks are No. 4 seeds Michigan State (13 percent) and Louisville (8.8 percent).

Here's the top 10 teams to win it all:

1. Florida: 27.6 percent

2. Michigan State: 13.1 percent

3. Louisville: 8.9 percent

4. Arizona 7.3 percent

5. Wichita State: 6.4 percent

6. Duke: 5.9 percent

7. Kansas: 5.6 percent

8. Virginia: 4.0 percent

9. Michigan: 3.9 percent

10. Syracuse: 3.7 percent

Percentage of brackets picking teams to reach the Final Four, by region:


1. Florida: 61.8 percent

2. Kansas: 17 percent

3. Syracuse: 12 percent

4. UCLA: 2.9 percent


1. Arizona: 47 percent

2. Wisconsin: 20.9 percent

3. Creighton: 13.1 percent

9. Oklahoma State: 6.7 percent


4. Louisville: 36.7 percent

3. Duke: 22.2 percent

1. Wichita State: 18.8 percent

2. Michigan: 15 percent


4. Michigan State: 44.3 percent

1. Virginia: 23.8 percent

2. Iowa State: 11.9 percent

3. Villanova: 9.4 percent

Upset watch

There are two 9-over-8 games picked by a majority of brackets so far:

• Pittsburgh (72.5 percent) over Colorado

• Oklahoma State (67.6 percent) over Gonzaga

Interestingly, Pittsburgh is a more popular pick than two 5-seeds (Cincinnati, Saint Louis) and three 7-seeds (UConn, New Mexico, Texas)

Here are the brackets picking these popular 12-over-5 upsets:

• NC State/Xavier winner: 33.7 percent (over Saint Louis)

• Harvard: 29.1 percent (over Cincinnati)

• North Dakota State: 20.1 percent (over Oklahoma)

• Stephen F. Austin: 19.9 percent (over VCU)

Also worth noting is that the winner of the Iowa/Tennessee game is picked by 42.5 percent of brackets to beat UMass in the Round of 64, by far the most popular 11-seed to win.

Other most popular upsets by seed:

13-over-4: New Mexico State (10.6 percent) over San Diego State

14-over-3: Louisiana-Lafayette (5.8 percent) over Creighton

15-over-2: Milwaukee (3.4 percent) over Villanova

16-over-1: Coastal Carolina (1.9 percent) over Virginia

Two No. 1 seeds (Arizona and Wichita State) seem to be prime candidates to be upset before the Sweet 16, according to brackets. Just 63.8 percent of brackets have Wichita State in the Sweet 16 (ranked 13th overall), partly because 30.9 percent of brackets have Kentucky (the Shockers' potential Round of 32 opponent) reaching the Sweet 16. Also, Arizona is picked to reach the Sweet 16 in 77.2 percent of brackets, lower than three 2-seeds, partly because of Oklahoma State (the Wildcats' potential Round of 32 opponent) getting 17.8 percent support to advance to the Sweet 16.

However, while those two are relatively early popular upset picks, they're also popular picks to win it all, as the fourth- and fifth-most popular choices overall.

Finally, the least-picked teams to win it all:

• New Mexico State (542 brackets at last count)

• NC Central (559)

• Manhattan (649)

• Tulsa (693)

Note, the 16-seeds are usually not among the least teams picked because of a number of brackets picking the lower-seed to win each game.