Update: Post updated to correct error in probable opponent. Thanks to those who pointed out a mistake in the entry.
The Thanksgiving Day opponent for the Cowboys will be announced at some point Monday from the owners' meetings in Orlando.
Of the eight opponents on the Cowboys' schedule, we can cross out the the Lions from the NFC North, who also host a Thanksgiving Day game. The Lions are expected to play the Patriots on that day.
The last time the Cowboys played a division opponent on Thanksgiving was 2002, when they beat the Redskins, 27-20. Recent history has the league reserving those division games for marquee time slots.
Assuming the Patriots-Lions matchup is a done deal, that leaves us with the Saints, Bears, and division opponents.
Here are my odds, taking into account the opponent being from the NFC:
NFC East opponent, 15-1
The Saints would be a pretty good opponent, but I'm not sure if Fox or NBC would want this highly anticipated matchup for another day. Not sure about the Bears. Jay Cutler vs. Tony Romo would be a pretty good matchup, however the Cowboys played the Bears on Thanksgiving in 2004 and won, 21-7.
The last three Thanksgiving Day Cowboys opponents were the Raiders (AFC-2009), Seahawks (NFC - 2008), and Jets (AFC-2007).