IRVING, Texas -- We've seen from past Nelsons that someone few expect can jump up and surprise the field, taking home the championship trophy. Here's someone you should watch.
Player: Jeff Overton
Why he can win: Overton has two top-5s on the season and appears close to getting that first PGA Tour win. ... Nelson is used to crowning first-time winners, so he fits the bill. Plus, he likes the course with two top-10 finishes the past two years.
Best career Nelson finish: Tied for second in 2010
Best finish in 2012 on PGA Tour: Tied for fourth at Shell Houston Open.