The worst case scenario for the Dallas Stars Tuesday was to lose in regulation to the San Jose Sharks, and for the Phoenix Coyotes to win. That’s what happened and now the Stars’ chances of making the playoffs pretty slim.
The folks at sportsclubstats.com now put the Stars’ chances of making the playoffs at 8.8 percent, down from 46.5% when play started Tuesday night.
The Stars now trail the Sharks by three points, and both Los Angeles and Phoenix by four points. The Stars hold the first tiebreaker (regulation/overtime wins) over each of those teams, so they could pass anyone of them by equaling their points.
To make the playoffs the Stars have to win their final two games – at Nashville (Thursday) and vs. St. Louis (Saturday) and then hope for one of the following scenarios.
San Jose gets one or no points in its final two games.
Los Angeles gets no points in its final two games.
Phoenix gets no points in its final two games.
Now, San Jose and Los Angeles play each other in a home-and-home, so one of those teams is picking up two points on Thursday when they meet in the first game. Phoenix plays at St. Louis (Friday) and then at Minnesota Saturday.
But before any of that comes into play, the Stars will have to win at Nashville on Thursday to stay alive in the race.
Battle for the Pacific
A look at the race for the Pacific Division title and the Western Conference playoffs.
Western Conference Playoff Race
The Western Conference playoff race. ROW = Regulation/Overtime wins. DIFF = goal differential.
x = clinched playoff spot. y = clinched division.