Whom to trust, a computer or a scout? By now, every team in the major leagues blends both approaches. So, we thought we’d try to give a fuller picture of what to expect from some of the Dodgers’ key players this season by surveying a veteran scout who covers the Dodgers regularly, and then assembling two of the better known computer projection systems, ZiPS and Bill James.
Today: Adrian Gonzalez. Next: Hyun-Jin Ryu.
ZiPS: .286, 26 home runs, 95 RBIs, 33 doubles.
James: .303, 27 home runs, 107 RBIs, 41 doubles.
Scout: .295, 23 home runs, 110 RBIs, 43 doubles.
When he was young, we always thought he was a cross between Mark Grace and Rafael Palmeiro. I don't have an answer for what has happened to his power, but I know a lot of his power was to left-center field at Petco. I think the 40 home runs were more the aberration and 25 is more like the norm. Adrian's a good hitter and I don't think he's power-conscious. I think he takes what a guy gives him and I think he's an RBI guy.
He's going to help the left side of their infield. I guarantee he's going to save Hanley [Ramirez] a few errors. His hands are spectacular. His arm is really, really accurate and he likes to throw. You watch him catch throws and balls that would just eat most guys up he just picks. He would have been a pickpocket in a different era.
Consensus: Superstar season.