Now that TCU is No. 3 in the BCS standings, the question is whether the Horned Frogs will stay there should they finish the season undefeated. No. 4 Boise State does have a chance to climb back up with several big games against Hawaii and Nevada ahead. What about No. 5 Utah? If the Utes beat TCU on Saturday, can they pass the Broncos?
I think if TCU wins out, it would stay ahead of Boise State. The Broncos are going to have to be perfect to impress the voters, who seem to be looking for a reason to vote them down. If Boise State is in a struggle with Hawaii on Saturday and TCU beats Utah, I think there is a very real possibility TCU picks up votes, and perhaps a spot on the Broncos.
These are just guesses, of course. I asked BCS expert Brad Edwards for his opinions on what could happen. Here is what Edwards had to say:
"The challenge for Boise State is to keep winning convincingly, as the schedule gets tougher. Hawaii and Nevada are better than most voters realize, and I'm guessing the Broncos will really pay in the polls if they have a narrow win over either of those teams.
"But if Boise can keep its edge in the polls, I don't think TCU's a lock to stay ahead. One advantage TCU has right now is that its win over Baylor is pretty much equal to Boise's win over Virginia Tech. If Tech keeps winning and Baylor starts losing, that could swing things back a little. Another thing that would hurt TCU in the computers would be for Utah to lose another game (at Notre Dame or at San Diego State).
"Right now, it's hard not to favor TCU to finish ahead, but it's far from hopeless for Boise State."
What happens if Utah and Boise State go undefeated?
"Utah doesn't have enough quality wins outside of conference play to rank as high as TCU in the computers, and I also doubt voters would move the Utes as high as they've been putting TCU on their ballots. Utah's only chance to finish ahead of Boise is for the Broncos to play an unexpectedly close game and get punished for it by the voters."