Jets coach Todd Bowles on his decision-making: 'I feel like I was fine'

On second thought ... well, there was no second thought.

One day after his controversial decision to punt, New York Jets coach Todd Bowles stood by his choice, claiming it was such a no-brainer that he didn't discuss it with his coaches.

"If we got a little closer, I might have went for it, but fourth-and-8 is a tough pill to swallow right there," Bowles said Monday. "We had three timeouts and we were trying to win field position. There's not much to talk about there."

The Jets had the ball at their own 44-yard line with four minutes to play, trailing by two scores in an eventual 21-12 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Bowles' strategy backfired because he punted, failed to get a stop and burned all three timeouts, leaving them in a virtually hopeless situation when they got the ball with 1:44 to play.

What are the chances of converting fourth-and-8? In 2016, teams were successful on five of 12 attempts (42 percent), according to ESPN Stats & Information. To get a bigger sample size, let's go back three years. From 2014 to 2016, it was 12-for-37 (32 percent) on fourth-and-8.

So let's play the percentage game, using Bowles' strategy. What were the chances of forcing a three-and-out, scoring a touchdown or field goal, recovering an onside kick and scoring another touchdown or field goal in three-plus minutes with only the two-minute warning to stop the clock? I'd say less than 32 percent.

For the analytics crowd, the Jets' win probability actually increased after the punt -- albeit only .06 percent, according to ESPN Stats. At that point, they had only a one-percent chance to win the game. What isn't clear is how a fourth-down attempt would've impacted the probability.

Bowles dismissed the notion that he needs to be more aggressive in situations like that.

"I feel like I was fine," he said.

Many disagree.