Thanks to everyone who participated in Tuesday's SportsNation chat, where I managed to offer at least one completely inane answer. Luckily, Patrick of Chicago was there to call me on it. First, the exchange:
Which is more likely, Bears trade up or Bears trade down?
Kevin Seifert (2:45 PM)
Statistically, down is always more likely. But I'm thinking the Bears have a decent chance of moving up.
Soon after, Patrick shipped this missive to the mailbag:
You do realize that if one team is trading down, another is trading up, making the statistical probability of each equal. If you were referring to the Bears' statistical tendencies, then there is no need for the "always." Not quite sure where that answer came from, but it doesn't make sense.
It's simple. What you read was a sloppy and overly speedy attempt to reference what Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune explained in much more detailed language. Bears general manager Jerry Angelo has traded up in the draft only once in his career with the team. Historically speaking at least, there is a greater likelihood that he will trade down than there is that he will trade up.
But without a spot in the first or second round this year, there has been some discussion that Angelo will have to break from his philosophy in order to get an impact player at safety or elsewhere. It would have been more precise for me to write "possibility" than "chance" during our chat.
Thanks again to Patrick and everyone else for keeping it real.