Even if you're not into fantasy football, I think you'll find Christopher Harris' analysis of NFL running backs Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings) and Chris Johnson (Tennessee Titans) pretty interesting.
In deciding which player to take No. 1 overall in his fantasy draft, Harris unearthed some telling statistics. Among them: Peterson scored 14 touchdowns from inside the opponents' 5-yard line last season. If you're counting on Peterson continuing that pattern of "vulture scoring" this season, Harris passes along this nugget: Only 13 times in the past 70 years has a runner scored so frequently from inside the 5-yard line.
Harris had concerns about Johnson as well. Here's the crux of his issue:
When making this decision -- Johnson versus Peterson -- I think there are two primary factors we need to consider. First, is it likelier that a running back repeats a massively big-play-infused season, a la Johnson in '09, or is it likelier that a running back repeats a high-touchdown season based primarily on short-yardage scores, a la Peterson in '09? Second, there's the question of Johnson's usage in '09. He led the NFL in carries and in touches from scrimmage, and he's not a big man. Is it likely that he gets as many opportunities here in '10?
Who did Harris pick? Why, you'll have to read his full report to find out. Go ahead. It won't cost you a cent.