LuckWatch 2011: Sorry, Seahawks

Andrew Luck has thrown at least two touchdown passes in each of Stanford's games this season. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The latest in an occasional series sizing up five NFL teams' prospects for landing Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, the consensus projected No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft:

The Seattle Seahawks have gone from topping our inaugural LuckWatch item two weeks ago to dropping from the top five.

They wouldn't even rank sixth among the teams with the best chances for securing the first pick in the 2012 NFL draft and, by extension, a shot at Luck.

The Miami Dolphins, Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars comprised the top five this time, with the Kansas City Chiefs on standby as the unlisted No. 6 seed.

Seattle's home victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 told me the Seahawks would have a good shot at posting a 3-3 record in the NFC West by winning division games at CenturyLink Field. And if the St. Louis Rams continue to spiral into oblivion, aided by an untenable injury situation, the Seahawks could conceivably sweep the season series from them.

Home games against Cincinnati and Washington also appear winnable, as does a road game against Cleveland. Winning two of those three non-division games and three more against NFC West opponents would remove Seattle from the LuckWatch equation.

The toughest call this week was listing the Broncos and Jaguars, but not the Chiefs. Kansas City appeared doomed after losing Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki to season-ending injuries, but the Chiefs have been quite competitive over their last two games. They already own a victory over LuckWatch competitor Minnesota. They face Indianapolis in Week 5, Miami in Week 9 and Denver twice.

The St. Louis Rams are the only 0-4 team left off the list. They're set at quarterback, which raises a question for a future LuckWatch: What could the Rams get for the No. 1 overall choice?

This race is only beginning.