Thanks to Mike Kohary for passing along via Facebook the link to Brian Burke's statistical justification for Bill Belichick's fourth-and-2 decision Sunday.
History says there was no reason for the Patriots to punt in that situation.
Non-statistical considerations -- the Patriots have Tom Brady, the Colts have Peyton Manning -- only reinforce the decision as correct.
I didn't have the numbers or math background to accomplish what Burke demonstrated, but Belichick's decision did make sense to me. Based on Burke's research, there really shouldn't have been much debate.