BOSTON -- Good morning, NFC West. I'm actually in AFC East country through the weekend for a sports conference.
Not just any sports conference. It's the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, where a placard to my immediate left carries a headline reading, "Going for three: Predicting the likelihood of field goal success with logistic regression."
The placard summarizes findings from MIT's Torin Clark, Aaron Johnson and Alexander Stimpson regarding how certain field goal kickers performed from 2000 through 2011 in relation to expectations, and to what degree certain stadiums were more likely to facilitate successful tries.
Rob Bironas, Robbie Gould, Connor Barth, John Kasay and Dan Carpenter topped the list for added points per attempt. Wade Richey, Jose Cortez, Tim Seder, Nick Novak and Steve Christie were at the bottom.
Anyway, the point isn't to go on forever about field goal regressions, but rather to provide a glimpse into the sort of work that's on display here. I'll be attending presentations throughout Friday and Saturday.
In the meantime, we've got another item scheduled to appear at noon ET. That one touches on every team in the NFC West.
But if you're really interested in that kicker information, here you go.
Sebastian Janikowski, Carpenter, Ryan Succop, Josh Scobee and Mason Crosby were considered most underrated by raw field goal percentage. That means they attempted longer field goal tries on average, affecting their percentages. Stephen Gostkowski, Mike Vanderjagt, Gary Anderson, Shayne Graham and Lawrence Tynes were considered most overrated by raw percentage. They benefited from shorter tries.
Former Arizona Cardinals kicker Neil Rackers owned the second-best single season during the period in question. That was in 2005, when he added 18.7 expected points. Only Janikowski's 2009 season (plus-19.4) was better.