What are the odds Pats would've scored?

Let’s say things went the Patriots’ way Monday night and the officials upheld the pass interference call on Rob Gronkowski in the end zone with no time left on the clock. That would have given New England the ball at the 1-yard line, with one untimed play and needing a touchdown to win the game.

What are the chances the Patriots would have scored on a single play from the 1? ESPN Stats & Information examined the possibilities:

  • Since 2001, NFL teams down four to eight points on the opponents' 1 with 0-5 seconds left in the fourth quarter scored a touchdown on 5 of 10 plays (a 50 percent probability of scoring).

  • This season, there have been 101 touchdowns on 198 snaps from the 1-yard line on first, second or third down. (Again, roughly a 50 percent chance of scoring.)

  • Of the 15 plays the Patriots ran this year on first, second or third down on the opponent’s 1-yard line, they scored five times (33.3 percent conversion rate).