My sense is that this new wave of quarterbacks will get contracts with overall values between $80-90 million, guarantees in the $40-45 million range and three-year values from $50-55 million. Teams will try to limit the guaranteed portion of the deals to the first two years to minimize the risk of their investment.
As of right now, the Ravens and Flacco have stopped negotiations on a new deal, although the sides were reportedly close at the beginning of August. My stance remains that Flacco will sign a contract that averages out to between $13 million and $14 million per season and includes between $30 million and $35 million guaranteed.
As Brandt pointed out, Flacco isn't the only quarterback in line for a new deal. The Cowboys have reportedly begun talks with Tony Romo. The Falcons have to start thinking of a new deal for Matt Ryan, who will make $10 million next season before becoming a free agent in 2014.
Since entering the league in 2008, Flacco has won more games (and more playoff games) than Romo and Ryan. Romo has been the most prolific passer of this group with over 4,000 yards in his last two full seasons. Ryan has been the most consistent with 57 touchdowns and a 90-plus quarterback rating over the previous two years.
So, who deserves the bigger contract: Flacco, Romo or Ryan?