Projected 2017 NFL draft order: Two-team race for No. 1 pick

Look below at the teams projected to secure a top-five spot in the 2017 draft, as determined by ESPN's Football Power Index.

All five need (or will need) a quarterback next season.

Look at ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper's latest 2017 Big BoardInsider, a list of the 25 or so best prospects likely to be available.

There aren't five quarterbacks. In fact, there is one: North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky, a junior who has yet to declare.

With the draft's top three picks nearly set, and with the two other teams holding at least a three-in-four chance of joining the top five, it's time to start beating the bushes for the next Dak Prescott. The 2017 class of quarterback seekers is going to have a hard time finding resolution in the top five this spring.

A reminder: This projection is based in part on the teams' current records and the NFL tiebreaker (reverse order of strength of schedule). But they also include the strength of remaining opponents among other factors. This is not a list of where each team would draft if the season had ended today.

1. Cleveland Browns

Record: 0-12

FPI odds of top pick: 85.1 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 100 percent

Comment: The only man standing between the Browns and 0-16 might be ... Robert Griffin III? The Browns appear set to circle back to where it all began. Griffin started in Week 1, a 29-10 loss to the Eagles, and now is nearing a return from shoulder surgery. If you want the Browns to clinch the No. 1 overall spot, don't worry. Griffin has won two starts (in 13 chances) in the past three years.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Record: 1-11

FPI odds of top pick: 14.1 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 99.7 percent

Comment: This is starting to get serious for a proud franchise. The 49ers' 11-game losing streak has them in position to make their highest pick since drafting quarterback Alex Smith No. 1 overall in 2005. They're going to have to work hard to not win again, however. They play host to the equally woeful Jets in Week 14, and play at the slumping Rams in Week 16.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 2-10

FPI odds of top pick: 0.7 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 90.2 percent

Comment: Factors working in the Jaguars' favor in this race include a remaining schedule against four teams in playoff contention. They will face the Vikings, Texans, Titans and Colts the rest of the way. Factors working against them for a top-three pick include ... uh ... none.

4. Chicago Bears

Record: 3-9

FPI odds of top pick: 0.1 percent

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 80.2 percent

Comment: The Bears have placed quarterback Jay Cutler on injured reserve, perhaps ending his tenure with the team. The respected personnel evaluators at Pro Football Focus are asking whether backup Matt Barkley -- who threw for 316 yards in Week 13 and led the Bears to a win in Week 14 -- could be a long-term answer. Yikes. It's time for the offseason in Chicago -- and a draft that could bring an actual quarterback prospect.

5. New York Jets

Record: 3-9

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 74.3 percent

FPI odds of top-10 pick: 99.7 percent

Comment: The Jets are officially in 2017 mode, having benched the short-term starter they signed just before training camp (Ryan Fitzpatrick) in favor of a quarterback (Bryce Petty) whose most extensive action to date suggests he is not much of an upgrade. They are eliminated from playoff contention and grasping at straws.

6. Tennessee Titans (from Los Angeles Rams)

Rams' record: 4-8

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 44.2 percent

FPI odds of top-10 pick: 98.2 percent

Comment: If the Rams can drop two more games, coach Jeff Fisher will own the most losses by a single coach in NFL history (provided he isn't fired before that point). It's the least Fisher can do for his former franchise in Tennessee, which stands to benefit from the Rams' ineptitude as part of the Jared Goff trade. The Rams have lost seven of their past eight.

7. Carolina Panthers

Record: 4-8

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 7.3 percent

FPI odds of top-10 pick: 82.1 percent

Comment: We should have seen this one coming. Since their inception in 1995, the Panthers have never had consecutive winning seasons. In 2015, it was 15-1 and a Super Bowl berth. 2016? They'll finish no better than .500, and that might be optimistic.

8. Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 4-7-1

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 2.5 percent

FPI odds of top-10 pick: 55.2 percent

Comment: Cincinnati is going in the wrong direction, at least if your goal in this exercise is to secure the highest possible draft pick. The Bengals throttled the Eagles in Week 13, dropping them from No. 7 in this projection, and will make the trip to Cleveland in Week 14. Fortunately for them, or at least their draft status, they will finish the season against the Steelers, Texans and Ravens.

9. New Orleans Saints

Record: 5-7

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 0.4 percent

FPI odds of top-10 pick: 45.8 percent

Comment: How badly do the Saints want to be spoilers? That answer could determine whether they fulfill their odds of a top-10 draft pick. The Saints play the Buccaneers twice and the Falcons once among their final four games. Their performance in those games could largely determine the NFC South winner -- and their own draft position.

10. San Diego Chargers

Record: 5-7

FPI odds of top-5 pick: 0.3 percent

FPI odds of top-10 pick: 36.5 percent

Comment: Oh, the poor Chargers. They're once again among the teams most affected by injuries. And when they have a chance to win, quarterback Philip Rivers is melting down. He has thrown an NFL-high six interceptions in the fourth quarter of one-score games. That'll get you a top-10 pick.