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Pac-10 bowl projections

Oregon State is the big mover this week, its win against California making a 6-3 Pac-10 finish the most likely scenario for the Beavers. That could make things interesting.

If both Arizona and Oregon State finish 6-3 in the Pac-10, that likely would make them top candidates for the Holiday Bowl, which gets the Pac-10's No. 3 team.

The Wildcats played in the Holiday Bowl last year. Oregon State never has. And the Beavers won at Arizona.

The guess here is the Beavers would go to San Diego and Arizona would get a trip to El Paso for the Sun Bowl, which the Beavers played in in 2006 and 2008.

Of course, both are still in the Rose Bowl race. And if Arizona wins at Stanford on Saturday, its bowl possibilities greatly expand. (I'm sure to get some grumpiness from Wildcats fans not appreciative of getting losses to Stanford and Oregon written into their future).

After the top four teams, though, things are murky. We've got California and Arizona State earning bowl berths at 6-6. For the Sun Devils, that means some sort of waiver is given, because they played two FCS teams and typically would be required to win seven games. Contracted conference bowl games might be able to fudge things with the NCAA. (With 35 bowls requiring 70 teams, this might be necessary to fill all slots).

A key player might be USC. Will the Trojans finish strong or wilt? My present scenario has the Trojans losing to Arizona State, Arizona and Oregon State, meaning they're about to begin a four-game losing streak.

To be honest, that feels unlikely. But, not to seem like a whiny baby or anything, these bowl projections aren't easy to do.

  • Tostitos BCS National Championship Game: Oregon vs. BCS team

  • Rose Bowl Game: No Pac-10 team

  • Valero Alamo: Stanford vs. Big 12

  • Bridgepoint Education Holiday: Oregon State vs. Big 12

  • Hyundai Sun: Arizona vs. ACC

  • MAACO Las Vegas: California vs. Mountain West

  • Kraft Fight Hunger: Arizona State vs. WAC