Sam Khan Jr.Alex Scarborough 9d

SEC Week 11 picks: Is Alabama ripe for an upset?

To get you ready for Saturday's action, ESPN reporters Sam Khan Jr. and Alex Scarborough give their picks and analysis of Week 11 in the SEC. Visit our college football PickCenter page for additional information on these games and many more.

Scarborough: Time for another week of game picks, Sam. You've cut into my lead somewhat, but I'm still three games up (61-15 vs. 58-18). This Saturday could change all that, though. Assuming we're in agreement that Ole Miss beats Louisiana-Lafayette and Texas A&M takes care of business against New Mexico in the out-of-conference games, let's see if we have any disagreement elsewhere on the slate of games in the SEC.

Let's start with Arkansas going to LSU. I like the Tigers here. Arkansas is reeling and coming off a too-close-for-comfort win over lowly Coastal Carolina. I'm not sure Bret Bielema can turn it around. And while I fear the Alabama hangover factor, I like what I saw from Matt Canada's offense, playing aggressively against the Tide. LSU wins by double digits.

Khan: I agree on all accounts. The most entertaining part of Arkansas' 13-point comeback over Coastal was that the Razorbacks' play-by-play radio voice said after the game was over, "Let's get in the car before they put more time on the clock." It says a lot about where the Hogs are right now. They're a mess. LSU should cruise here.

Scarborough: Next up: Florida at South Carolina. Any chance the Gators pull out of this tailspin?

Khan: Not against the Gamecocks. South Carolina has played some good football as of late, and I thought they hung tough against a Georgia team that was more talented. They won't be as bottled up offensively as they were a week ago. I think the Gamecocks win big.

Scarborough: Same here. It's going to be bizarre to see Will Muschamp beat up on his former team, but I think that's what will happen. Strange how things turned out when he and Florida parted ways.

How about Kentucky at Vanderbilt? I'm at a loss on this one, so I'm going to go with my gut and say Kentucky bounces back, bottles up Ralph Webb and wins a close ballgame.

Khan: We're in agreement again. This is a better Kentucky team than it was a year ago, and the Wildcats were able to beat a Vanderbilt team that hasn't reached the level it was when they last met. The Commodores have some positivity after ending the losing streak, and UK dropping the Ole Miss game certainly hurts, but give me the team that has actually won some SEC games this year -- Big Blue Nation.

Tennessee and Missouri. Dare I say the Tigers have a decent shot to go bowling? I think Mizzou makes it four in a row here. That's a confident group that's got Drew Lock and that offense rolling. What say you?

Scarborough: A 10.5-point spread is a big number that's too hard to ignore. So while I find myself in the odd position of picking Tennessee over Missouri, I'm going to do it. And I agree: I think we'll see Lock light up the Vols' secondary.

How about Alabama going to Mississippi State? Any chance the cowbells get to the Tide and they're upset on the road?

Khan: Call me crazy, but I think there is a chance. Alabama is a little beat up on the injury front, and you don't necessarily want to be missing linebackers against a run game like Mississippi State's. I think the Bulldogs' defense is physical enough and tackles well enough to stand up to the test that Alabama will give them offensively. (No team in the SEC allows fewer yards after contact against Power 5 competition than Mississippi State.) And this is the time of year when things get a little cuckoo. Mississippi State rewarded me once this year when I picked them for an upset (in Week 3 vs. LSU), so I'm going back to the well. Clanga.

Scarborough: Wow. I like the guts to go for it, Sam. You're wrong, but still.

I keep looking for reasons to give State a chance, but I keep coming up empty. The Bulldogs' defense is going to have serious problems stopping the run against Alabama. And offensively, I just don't see the kind of playmakers to give even an injury-depleted Alabama defense trouble.

So while it might be a close game early, I think Jalen Hurts has his way and the Tide pull away in the second half.

And now for the big one: No. 1 Georgia at No. 10 Auburn. The Tigers could get into the playoff picture with a win at home, but the Bulldogs are playing with a lot of confidence right now. What say you?

Khan: Auburn is playing pretty well, too, of late. I liked what I saw from the Tigers in person last week. That said, I think Georgia's defense will slow down Kerryon Johnson and Auburn's running game just enough, and on the flip side, I think Nick Chubb and Sony Michel do their thing and the Bulldogs grind out a close victory to move to 10-0.

Scarborough: I hate to say it because we're agreeing too much lately, but I can't go the other way on this one. Some of the jet sweeps and horizontal running that worked against A&M just aren't going to fly against Georgia. That front seven is too good and too athletic. Besides, I don't see Auburn having the difference-makers at receiver to keep the defense honest. I think this is a low-scoring game in which Auburn's offense has trouble moving the ball consistently and Georgia does just enough to pull out a tough road win.

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