Saturday's previews besides seeking #600


Jon Lester at Seattle Mariners:

- Against his changeup, opponents are missing 35 percent (38/112) of the time.

- The Mariners are batting .198 (84/424) this season against the changeup which is 49 percentage points lower than the league average.


- Geovany Soto is having a great rebound year after a dismal 2009. Part of his success comes from his hitting to the opposite field:

2009 - .211 BA (12-for-57), .281 slug pct, 0 HR

2010 - .415 BA (17-for-41), .659 slug pct, 2 HR


- Freddy Garcia: .304 opp BA vs offspeed pitches this season. His changeup may be extra effective against the Athletics today, as they're hitting 42 points worse than the rest of the league against that pitch.


- Vladimir Guerrero has punished the Los Angeles Angels this season for perhaps giving up on him a bit too soon. Vlad is 11-for-26 this season against his former team, good for a .423 average in seven games. Guerrero is slugging 1.000 against the Halos this season with the Rangers, dwarfing the .425 MLB average.

One of the keys to his success has been his confidence with two strikes. Vlad boasts a .462 OBP with two strikes against the Angels, well above the .266 league average.


Watch out for Mike Pelfrey's splitter vs Arizona today. Since June 25, he's thrown his splitter in the strike zone 46.4 percent of the time, getting hitters to miss 18.5 percent and chase 20.0 percent out of the strike zone. All better numbers than before his June 25th win against the Twins.


- And you knew we couldn't get through a post without mentioning Alex Rodriguez and his quest for his 600th HR today. He's hitting .314 (11-35) and has a .600 slugging percentage (21-35) with two strikes during the month of July (League average is .186 and .283, respectively).

A-Rod is seeking #600 coincidentally against Kyle Davies. Rodriguez hit his 500th career HR off of Davies on a Saturday afternoon back in 2007.

Alex Rodriguez - Career vs Kyle Davies

H-AB: 3-4

HR: 1<<<

RBI: 3

Slug pct: 1.750

<< 500th career HR on Aug. 4, 2007