Keselowski projected to win at Bristol

Here are the projections for Sunday's Sprint Cup race at Bristol. Our projection system takes into account, among other factors, drivers’ past performances at the current track, prerace on-track activity (practices and qualifying), and probability of finishing the race.

All of the data is then adjusted for the track type, which in this case is a 0.533-mile concrete oval short track.

ESPN Stats & Info

Bristol’s steep banking has resulted in 150 DNFs since 2004 -- most of any non-restrictor-plate track.

Bristol Motor Speedway has produced the most accidents (369) and accidents per race (7.7) of any track on the circuit over the past quarter-century. Completing all 500 laps in this race is difficult, as there were eight crashes here last spring and seven crashes in the fall.

Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth, Clint Bowyer, Carl Edwards, Jeff Burton and Marcos Ambrose were among those involved in wrecks in this race last season. Johnson, Bowyer and Burton also crashed in the fall race, so they might outperform their projected finishes if they can manage to keep their cars on the track.

Brad Keselowski has won here twice (spring 2012, fall 2011) -- the same result projected for him Sunday. However, since his 2012 win, Keselowski has wrecked twice in three Bristol races, finishing 30th and at least 22 laps down in each of the races in which he crashed. If he can avoid trouble, he has a good shot to record his first career back-to-back Sprint Cup wins.

NSCS at Bristol Projections