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The excitement factor of NBA playoff series

The two tables below show an alternative way to look at the excitement levels of a couple NBA playoff series, which better captures the excitement of the series over traditional stats.

What is the Excitement Factor?

Excitement: Amount of change in win probability during the game.

Winner Chance: Average in-game win probability that the eventual winner had during the game.

The Portland Trail Blazers-Houston Rockets series

The Memphis Grizzlies-Oklahoma City Thunder series

Overall, the average game in the Portland-Houston series has had a total change of in-game win probability of 981 percent. This is higher than the 804 percent in the Memphis-OKC series.

Beyond this, the Portland-Houston series also had two games where the team that was losing much of the game came back to win (Games 1 and 4), whereas the winners of every game in the Memphis-OKC series generally controlled their games.

Despite having four overtime games to “just three” for Portland-Houston, the Memphis-OKC series hasn’t been quite as close or “exciting” as the Portland-Houston series.

The top 6 most exciting games of the playoffs thus far have been from these two series. (No. 7 was the Vince Carter buzzer-beater.)

The average excitement of 981 percent for the Portland-Houston series is higher than any single game of any series outside of these two.