Jeff Gordon the favorite at Atlanta

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Jeff Gordon leads the points race and is projected to win in Atlanta on Sunday.

Here are the projections for Sunday's Sprint Cup race at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Among other factors, our projection system takes into account drivers’ past performances at the track, prerace on-track activity (practices and qualifying) and probability of finishing the race. The data is then adjusted for the track type (in this case, a 1.54-mile quad-oval) and time of year.

With just two races to go before the Chase begins, all 12 drivers with a win have clinched a postseason spot, provided they attempt to qualify in both Atlanta and Richmond.

The most notable name without a win this season is Matt Kenseth, who won a series-high seven times a year ago. He is likely to make the Chase but is winless in 25 starts in Atlanta -- one of three tracks where he’s yet to win despite 25 or more starts.

Jeff Gordon has arguably been the strongest driver at Atlanta over the past decade. He is a five-time winner and has run 83 percent of his laps in the top 15 since 2005, the highest percentage of any driver. A sixth career victory would tie him with Bobby Labonte and Richard Petty for third most at this track.

Joey Logano picked up his third victory of the season last week at Bristol. In his past five starts this season, Logano has not finished worse than sixth and is the only driver to collect five top-10s over that stretch. Logano has led more laps this season (721) than he had in his previous five full seasons combined.

Two drivers looking to turn their fortunes around this weekend are Kasey Kahne and Kyle Busch. Kahne is 33 points outside of the final Chase spot and has an average finish of 31st at Atlanta in his last four starts. Busch has finished 36th or worse in four straight races and was caught up in an early wreck at Bristol.