LaMarcus Aldridge is blocking shots and avoiding fouls at a level few NBA players have achieved.The 4-Point Play looks at the four analytics-based storylines that will make you smarter when watching Wednesday’s game between the San Antonio Spurs (eighth in BPI) and Portland Trail Blazers (seventh in BPI) at 10:30 p.m. on ESPN. Our BPI gives the Blazers a 57 percent chance of winning.
1. The Spurs are getting by playing league-average offense, because their defense is the third best in the league, justly slightly behind the defenses of the Warriors and Grizzlies. The Spurs are fourth in the league in defensive rebounding percentage at 78 percent, and when they exceed that level, they give up 98 points per 100 possessions. They give up 103 points per 100 possessions when they are below their defensive rebounding percentage average.
2. The performance of Tony Parker seems to be dropping off. He has his lowest free throw attempts rate (free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts), assist percentage and usage percentage since his third season in the league. He is also taking more 3-pointers than at any other time in the last 10 seasons and hitting them at 49 percent.
3. LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging 1.1 blocks per 36 minutes and 1.9 personal fouls per 36 minutes. Of the 14 players who have completed a season with more than one block and fewer than two fouls per 36 minutes, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Tim Duncan are among them.
4. Damian Lillard has to play at a high level for the Blazers to win. In wins, he averages a 61 true shooting percentage and gets to the free throw line six times per 36 minutes. In losses, he has a 49 true shooting percentage and gets to the line four times per 36 minutes.