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Projections for Sprint Cup race at Kansas

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Nobody has led more laps in the Chase than Kansas pole-sitter Kevin Harvick.

Here are the projections for Sunday's Sprint Cup race at Kansas. Our projection system takes into account, among other factors, drivers’ past performances at the current track, pre-race on-track activity (practices and qualifying) and probability of finishing the race. All of the data is then adjusted for the track type (in this case, a 1.5-mile tri-oval) and time of year.

Kevin Harvick, who looks to win from the pole on Sunday, has led 42 percent of the laps in the Chase - the highest percentage among championship contenders and nearly double that of the next closest driver (Brad Keselowski, 23 percent). Harvick has been strong so far this week, finishing first or second in three of the four pre-race workouts.

Jeff Gordon is the defending Kansas winner and is also fresh off a win at Dover. He’s also a driver to watch for again this weekend; his three wins here are most all-time, and he’s seeking back-to-back Kansas wins for the second time in his career (won the first two events here in 2001 and 2002). Earlier this year at Kansas, Gordon posted the fastest average speed during the last 25 percent of laps run since a pit stop.

Kyle Busch would likely rather skip his visit to Kansas. It’s the only track in his Cup career where he doesn’t have a top-five finish, and in his past four starts there he’s averaging a finish of 29.5. He’s led just two laps at Kansas in his previous five starts.

• Chasers beware, your afternoon could end early if you’re not careful. Over the previous two Chase seasons, Kansas has been the most dangerous track with 16 accidents, easily the most of any Chase track in that time. No other venue has more than 10 wrecks during the 2012 and 2013 Chase.

• Teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano should once again be a threat this weekend. Kansas is another 1.5 miler, and the duo have combined to win 4 of 7 the races on 1.5-mile tracks this season. Of Keselowski’s five wins this year, three have come on 1.5-mile tracks.