4-Point Play: Cavaliers vs Wizards

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Marcin Gortat could play a huge role in tonight's matchup with the Cavs.The 4-Point Play looks at the four analytics-based storylines that will make you smarter when watching Friday’s game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (10th in BPI) and Washington Wizards (13th in BPI) at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. Our BPI gives the Wizards a 51 percent chance of winning:

1. The Wizards need to control the glass to keep their offense moving. They have an average offensive rebound percentage of 25 percent, and when they are above that, their offense scores 106 points per 100 possessions. In games where they are below that, Washington scores 100 points per 100 possessions.

2. The Wizards also need to keep Marcin Gortat involved on the offensive end. In wins, Gortat has an average assist percentage of 7 percent. In losses, his assist percentage is only 4 percent.

3. The Cavaliers' biggest problem all year has been on the defensive end, and their defense performs best when it is able to generate turnovers. When the Cavaliers force 10 or more turnovers per 100 possessions, their defense gives up 100 points per 100 possessions. When they are below that level, they give up 110 points per 100 possessions.

4. The Cavaliers are 8-2 over their last 10 games. During that run, Kevin Love has averaged 6.5 3-point attempts per 36 minutes. He averaged just five 3-point attempts per 36 minutes before this run.